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Future of TV Briefing: What if streamers adopted an ad revenue-sharing model for original programming?

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Future of TV Briefing: What if streamers adopted an ad revenue-sharing model for original programming?

This week’s Future of TV Briefing explores the idea of top-tier ad-supported streaming services adopting revenue-sharing models for producers.

Show me the money

What if the rise of premium ad-supported streaming were to meet with the entertainment industry’s current era of austerity to spark a new financial model for original programming? And what if that financial model wasn’t actually all that new, but mirrored the model of theatrical movies met with YouTube?

What if Netflix and the like decided to split ad revenue with the companies they pay to produce original shows and movies? 

Ugh, groan, right? Digital video producers grouse about how YouTube’s, Facebook’s and Snapchat’s ad revenue-sharing programs can be unreliable revenue streams, and thereby compromise how much money the producers are willing to invest in videos. That’s a reason why these producers try to pitch projects to the big leagues of Netflix, Hulu and HBO Max that the streamers will cover with big checks paid upfront.

But those big upfront paychecks are under threat. Warner Bros. Discovery is trying to cut $3 billion in costs, leading to a development freeze and layoffs at HBO. Disney’s new activist investor Third Point is pressing the company to similarly cut costs. And even smaller original programming distributors are doing cost-benefit analyses. Roku, for example, has started to look at the programming costs for its free, ad-supported streaming TV service The Roku Channel, and Charter has opted to exit the original programming business as production costs have increased.

And that’s another thing: Production costs have increased with rising inflation, rising interest rates, supply-chain constraints and the continuation of Covid-19-related costs. 

These financial factors have already opened up the likes of Netflix and CNN Films to co-financing projects. However, the co-financing model can result in some rights to a project reverting to the producers of that project, which can inhibit the streaming distributor from capitalizing on the intellectual property rights to sell merchandise and create theme park attractions based on a movie or show. 

“Companies that have a 360 [degree] view of content, they’re going to be fundamentally less interested in co-financing because they want all the rights,” said one entertainment executive.

Why not broaden the economic model a bit more by co-opting the rev-share model for original programming as digital video platforms have done? The streamers would pay a certain amount of money upfront to help pay for a project’s production, the producing company would cover the remainder, and then both sides would make back their money by splitting the revenue from ads running against the show or movie. 

While inspired by the digital video platforms, the model also mimics movies where producers can receive a percentage of theatrical ticket sales revenue in exchange for taking lower upfront payments. 

“The model should really be: Take the pool of revenue that comes in, allow all the costs of production to be recouped, allow whatever advertising [costs] to be recouped and then share there — almost like the old theatrical model,” said a second entertainment executive.

The risk, of course, is that there won’t be enough ad revenue for producers and streamers to reap, let alone recoup. Facebook and YouTube have already proven how financially feeble ad-supported original programming can be. Another risk would be that a rev-share model introduces the wrong incentives — an overload of ads and mass-appeal projects that lack any real appeal — scuttling the streamers’ ad-supported viewership and potentially turning off ad-free subscribers subjected to the same fare sans ads.

Then again, the top-tier streamers like Netflix could have some hope of succeeding in co-opting the rev-share model for original programming. For starters, major ad-supported streamers like Hulu and Peacock already charge at least three times as much per thousand ad impressions as digital video platforms, so there would stand to be more revenue to split per ad. 

Then again again, if there’s more money to be made from advertising — including from product placement deals — and if the streaming owners are trying to cut costs to protect profits, a scenario in which they hoard that money for themselves seems much less iffy.

What we’ve heard

“I’m not surprised at all that [Netflix has] taken this long [to formulate its advertising pitch]. We all kinda knew that a million things could go sideways. I was surprised the timeline was so aggressive to begin with. They were trying to keep up with Disney+, but Disney has an ad sales team and built the platform knowing they want to allow advertising one day, and a lot of their content is their own, so they have more control over everything.”

— Agency executive

Streaming viewership overtakes cable TV

The amount of time that people spend streaming shows and movies on TV has finally surpassed that of traditional cable TV, according to Nielsen’s The Gauge TV viewership report for July 2022.

To be clear, traditional TV still accounted for a majority of the time (56%) people spent watching TV in July. And July is typically one of the weaker months for traditional TV programming with broadcast primetime shows and major sports leagues like the NFL and NBA being between seasons. Nonetheless, streaming overtaking cable TV’s share — and having surpassed broadcast TV’s share since Nielsen began publishing The Gauge last summer — marks a milestone.

However, while streaming’s share of TV viewership overall increased, not all major streamers saw upticks in July compared to June.

YouTube recorded the biggest month-over-month increase at 0.4 percentage points, followed by Netflix and Hulu with 0.3 percentage point rises each. And Amazon Prime Video’s share inched up by 0.1 percentage points.

By contrast, HBO Max’s share of TV watch time stagnated at 1.0%, while Disney+’s actually dipped from 2.0% in June to 1.8% in July.

Numbers to know

350,000:  Number of U.K. households that stopped subscribing to any streaming service in the second quarter of 2022.

-1%:  Percentage decline in linear TV ad spending in the second quarter of 2022.

$28 million:  How much money Swiss Beatz and Timbaland claim Triller has yet to pay for acquiring Versus.

58%:  Percentage share of survey respondents who said they’d rather pay a lower monthly subscription price for an ad-supported tier than a pricier, ad-free option.

1.9 million:  Number of subscribers that top pay-TV services lost in the second quarter of 2022.

What we’re reading

Netflix’s ad product takes shape:

While Netflix has kept mum when talking with agency executives about its planned ad product, the streamer’s iPhone app spilled the beans on Netflix blocking ad-supported subscribers from downloading programs and skipping ads, according to Bloomberg.

Vice takes to Twitch:

Vice World News has debuted an original show on Twitch, making it the latest news outlet after The Washington Post and The Recount to adopt the Amazon-owned live-streaming platform, according to Adweek.

TikTok adds shoppable ads:

The digital video platform is still trying to make shoppable video a thing by introducing features for people to purchase products through advertisers’ videos as well as live streams, according to Ad Age.

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Google Pixel 7 and 7 Pro are getting a built-in VPN at no extra cost

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Google Pixel 7 and 7 Pro are getting a built-in VPN at no extra cost
Google Pixel 7 Pro hands on front Snow



(Image credit: Future / Lance Ulanoff)

Users of the Google Pixel 7 and 7 Pro devices will be able to secure their data without the need to pay for an additional Android VPN after the company said it would be including its Google One VPN service at no extra cost. 

The move will make the Pixel 7 and 7 Pro the first smartphones to include a free VPN connection. 

The offer is restricted to just some countries, though – and what’s more, some data won’t be secured inside the VPN tunnel.  

Peace of mind when you connect online ✨Later this year, #Pixel7 and 7 Pro will be the only phones with a VPN by Google One—at no extra cost.¹#MadeByGoogle¹See image for more info pic.twitter.com/P7lzyoMdekOctober 6, 2022

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Google Pixel 7 VPN

Despite the aforementioned limits, the big tech giant assures that the VPN software won’t associate users’ app and browsing data with users’ accounts. 

Google One VPN typically costs around $10 per month as part of the company’s Premium One plan, which also comes with a 2TB of cloud storage on top. 

This decision is the latest move to bring Google’s mobile data security to the next level. Not too long ago, the company made Google One VPN available also for iOS devices, and also introduced the option of having an always-on VPN across its latest smartphones. 

Google promises that its secure VPN software will shield your phone against hackers on unsecure networks, like public Wi-Fi. It will also hide your IP address so that third parties won’t be able to track your location.

Shorter for virtual private network, a VPN is exactly the tool you want to shield your sensitive data as it masks your real location and encrypts all your data in transit. Beside privacy, it can allow you to bypass geo-restrictions and other online blocks. 

Chiara is a multimedia journalist, with a special eye for latest trends and issues in cybersecurity. She is a Staff Writer at Future with a focus on VPNs. She mainly writes news and features about data privacy, online censorship and digital rights for TechRadar, Tom’s Guide and T3. With a passion for digital storytelling in all its forms, she also loves photography, video making and podcasting. Originally from Milan in Italy, she is now based in Bristol, UK, since 2018.

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The Steam Deck dock is finally here and will ship faster than you think

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The Steam Deck dock is finally here and will ship faster than you think
a steam deck placed in a steam deck dock



(Image credit: Valve)

After months of waiting and delays, Valve has finally announced that the Steam Deck dock is available for purchase on its official site.

Not only that but, according to Valve, the dock will ship out in an incredibly fast one to two weeks, which pairs with the fact that the Steam Deck itself is now shipping with no wait time (not to mention that it’s incredibly easy to set up). The port selection is pretty solid as well, with the dock featuring three USB-A 3.1 gen 1 ports, one Ethernet port, a DisplayPort 1.4, and an HDMI 2.0 port. And for its power supply, it uses a USB-C passthrough delivery.

A Steam Deck dock will run you $90 (around £81 / AU$140), which is a bit steeper than most third-party options on the market right now. But for those waiting it out for an official product until now, price most likely will not be an issue.

Is it worth buying? 

Considering that even Steam Decks themselves are shipping without a queue and that the dock has such a quick turnaround to delivery, it seems that the supply chain issues that had been gripping Valve are loosening considerably.

However, the deck itself is far from perfect. Because of the fact that it uses USB-C for the display port, a third-party USB-C dock that uses its own power supply and video out will output the display of the official dock. 

And as mentioned before, the price of the official Steam Deck dock is steeper than many third-party options on the market, meaning that those who are on a budget might pass this product up in favor of a lower-priced one.

There are also some bugs that Valve is working on fixing at this time, including one involving compatibility with LG displays. According to the FAQ, if the “Docking Station is connected via HDMI, sleep/wake can result in visual noise.”

It might be worth waiting for Valve to work out the kinks of its dock before investing in one. And while you’re waiting, research other options that might better suit your needs.

Allisa has been freelancing at TechRadar for nine months before joining as a Computing Staff Writer. She mainly covers breaking news and rumors in the computing industry, and does reviews and featured articles for the site. In her spare time you can find her chatting it up on her two podcasts, Megaten Marathon and Combo Chain, as well as playing any JRPGs she can get her hands on.

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Why doesn’t Bash’s `set -e` do what I expected?

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Why doesn’t set -e (or set -o errexit, or trap ERR) do what I expected?

set -e was an attempt to add “automatic error detection” to the shell. Its goal was to cause the shell to abort any time an error occurred, so you don’t have to put || exit 1 after each important command. This does not work well in practice.

The goal of automatic error detection is a noble one, but it requires the ability to tell when an error actually occurred. In modern high-level languages, most tasks are performed by using the language’s builtin commands or features. The language knows whether (for example) you tried to divide by zero, or open a file that you can’t open, and so on. It can take action based on this knowledge.

But in the shell, most of the tasks you actually care about are done by external programs. The shell can’t tell whether an external program encountered something that it considers an error — and even if it could, it wouldn’t know whether the error is an important one, worthy of aborting the entire program, or whether it should carry on.

The only information conveyed to the shell by the external program is an exit status — by convention, 0 for success, and non-zero for “some kind of error”. The developers of the original Bourne shell decided that they would create a feature that would allow the shell to check the exit status of every command that it runs, and abort if one of them returns non-zero. Thus, set -e was born.

But many commands return non-zero even when there wasn’t an error. For example,

if [ -d /foo ]; then ...; else ...; fi

If the directory doesn’t exist, the [ command returns non-zero. Clearly we don’t want to abort when that happens — our script wants to handle that in the else part. So the shell implementors made a bunch of special rules, like “commands that are part of an if test are immune”, and “commands in a pipeline, other than the last one, are immune”.

These rules are extremely convoluted, and they still fail to catch even some remarkably simple cases. Even worse, the rules change from one Bash version to another, as Bash attempts to track the extremely slippery POSIX definition of this “feature”. When a SubShell is involved, it gets worse still — the behavior changes depending on whether Bash is invoked in POSIX mode. Another wiki has a page that covers this in more detail. Be sure to check the caveats.

A reference comparing behavior across various historical shells also exists.

Story time

Consider this allegory, originally posted to bug-bash:

Once upon a time, a man with a dirty lab coat and long, uncombed hair
showed up at the town police station, demanding to see the chief of
police.  "I've done it!" he exclaimed.  "I've built the perfect
criminal-catching robot!"

The police chief was skeptical, but decided that it might be worth
the time to see what the man had invented.  Also, he secretly thought,
it might be a somewhat unwise move to completely alienate the mad
scientist and his army of hunter robots.

So, the man explained to the police chief how his invention could tell
the difference between a criminal and law-abiding citizen using a
series of heuristics.  "It's especially good at spotting recently
escaped prisoners!" he said.  "Guaranteed non-lethal restraints!"

Frowning and increasingly skeptical, the police chief nevertheless
allowed the man to demonstrate one robot for a week.  They decided that
the robot should patrol around the jail.  Sure enough, there was a
jailbreak a few days later, and an inmate digging up through the
ground outside of the prison facility was grabbed by the robot and
carried back inside the prison.

The surprised police chief allowed the robot to patrol a wider area.
The next day, the chief received an angry call from the zookeeper.
It seems the robot had cut through the bars of one of the animal cages,
grabbed the animal, and delivered it to the prison.

The chief confronted the robot's inventor, who asked what animal it
was.  "A zebra," replied the police chief.  The man slapped his head and
exclaimed, "Curses!  It was fooled by the black and white stripes!
I shall have to recalibrate!"  And so the man set about rewriting the
robot's code.  Black and white stripes would indicate an escaped
inmate UNLESS the inmate had more than two legs.  Then it should be
left alone.

The robot was redeployed with the updated code, and seemed to be
operating well enough for a few days.  Then on Saturday, a mob of
children in soccer clothing, followed by their parents, descended
on the police station.  After the chaos subsided, the chief was told
that the robot had absconded with the referee right in the middle of
a soccer game.

Scowling, the chief reported this to the scientist, who performed a
second calibration.  Black and white stripes would indicate an escaped
inmate UNLESS the inmate had more than two legs OR had a whistle on
a necklace.

Despite the second calibration, the police chief declared that the robot
would no longer be allowed to operate in his town.  However, the news
of the robot had spread, and requests from many larger cities were
pouring in.  The inventor made dozens more robots, and shipped them off
to eager police stations around the nation.  Every time a robot grabbed
something that wasn't an escaped inmate, the scientist was consulted,
and the robot was recalibrated.

Unfortunately, the inventor was just one man, and he didn't have the
time or the resources to recalibrate EVERY robot whenever one of them
went awry.  The robot in Shangri-La was recalibrated not to grab a
grave-digger working on a cold winter night while wearing a ski mask,
and the robot in Xanadu was recalibrated not to capture a black and
white television set that showed a movie about a prison break, and so
on.  But the robot in Xanadu would still grab grave-diggers with ski
masks (which it turns out was not common due to Xanadu's warmer climate),
and the robot in Shangri-La was still a menace to old televisions (of
which there were very few, the people of Shangri-La being on the average
more wealthy than those of Xanadu).

So, after a few years, there were different revisions of the
criminal-catching robot in most of the major cities.  In some places,
a clever criminal could avoid capture by wearing a whistle on a string
around the neck.  In others, one would be well-advised not to wear orange
clothing in certain rural areas, no matter how close to the Harvest
Festival it was, unless one also wore the traditional black triangular
eye-paint of the Pumpkin King.

Many people thought, "This is lunacy!"  But others thought the robots
did more good than harm, all things considered, and so in some places
the robots are used, while in other places they are shunned.

The end.

Exercises

Or, “so you think set -e is OK, huh?”

Exercise 1: why doesn’t this example print anything?

   1 
   2 set -e
   3 i=0
   4 let i++
   5 echo "i is $i"

Exercise 2: why does this one sometimes appear to work? In which versions of bash does it work, and in which versions does it fail?

   1 
   2 set -e
   3 i=0
   4 ((i++))
   5 echo "i is $i"

Exercise 3: why aren’t these two scripts identical?

   1 
   2 set -e
   3 test -d nosuchdir && echo no dir
   4 echo survived
   1 
   2 set -e
   3 f() { test -d nosuchdir && echo no dir; }
   4 f
   5 echo survived

Exercise 4: why aren’t these two scripts identical?

   1 set -e
   2 f() { test -d nosuchdir && echo no dir; }
   3 f
   4 echo survived
   1 set -e
   2 f() { if test -d nosuchdir; then echo no dir; fi; }
   3 f
   4 echo survived

Exercise 5: under what conditions will this fail?

   1 set -e
   2 read -r foo < configfile

(Answers)

But wait, there’s more!

Even if you use expr(1) (which we do not recommend — use arithmetic expressions instead), you still run into the same problem:

   1 set -e
   2 foo=$(expr 1 - 1)
   3 
   4 echo survived

Subshells from command substitution unset set -e, however (unless inherit_errexit is set with Bash 4.4):

   1 set -e
   2 foo=$(expr 1 - 1; true)
   3 
   4 echo survived

Note that set -e is not unset for commands that are run asynchronously, for example with process substitution:

   1 set -e
   2 mapfile foo < <(true; echo foo)
   3 echo ${foo[-1]} 
   4 mapfile foo < <(false; echo foo)
   5 echo ${foo[-1]} 

Another pitfall associated with set -e occurs when you use commands that look like assignments but aren’t, such as export, declare, typeset or local.

   1 set -e
   2 f() { local var=$(somecommand that fails); }
   3 f    
   4 
   5 g() { local var; var=$(somecommand that fails); }
   6 g    

In function f, the exit status of somecommand is discarded. It won’t trigger the set -e because the exit status of local masks it (the assignment to the variable succeeds, so local returns status 0). In function g, the set -e is triggered because it uses a real assignment which returns the exit status of somecommand.

A particularly dangerous pitfall with set -e is combining functions with conditionals. The following snippets will not behave the same way:

   1 set -e
   2 f() { false; echo "This won't run, right?"; }
   3 f
   4 echo survived
   1 set -e
   2 f() { false; echo "This won't run, right?"; }
   3 if f; then  
   4     echo survived
   5 fi

As soon as a function is used as a conditional (in a list or with a conditional test or loop) set -e stops being applied within the function. This may not only cause code to unexpectedly start executing in the function but also change its return status!

Using Process substitution, the exit code is also discarded as it is not visible from the main script:

   1 set -e
   2 cat <(somecommand that fails)
   3 echo survived

Using a pipe makes no difference, as only the rightmost process is considered:

   1 set -e
   2 somecommand that fails | cat -
   3 echo survived

set -o pipefail is a workaround by returning the exit code of the first failed process:

   1 set -e -o pipefail
   2 failcmd1 | failcmd2 | cat -
   3 
   4 echo survived

though with pipefail in effect, code like this will sometimes cause an error, depending on whether the output of somecmd exceeds the size of the pipe buffer or not:

   1 set -e -o pipefail
   2 somecmd | head -n1
   3 
   4 echo survived

So-called strict mode

In the mid 2010s, some people decided that the combination of set -e, set -u and set -o pipefail should be used by default in all new shell scripts. They call this unofficial bash strict mode, and they claim that it “makes many classes of subtle bugs impossible” and that if you follow this policy, you will “spend much less time debugging, and also avoid having unexpected complications in production”.

As we’ve already seen in the exercises above, these claims are dubious at best. The behavior of set -e is quite unpredictable. If you choose to use it, you will have to be hyper-aware of all the false positives that can cause it to trigger, and work around them by “marking” every line that’s allowed to fail with something like ||true.

Conclusions

GreyCat‘s personal recommendation is simple: don’t use set -e. Add your own error checking instead.

rking’s personal recommendation is to go ahead and use set -e, but beware of possible gotchas. It has useful semantics, so to exclude it from the toolbox is to give into FUD.

geirha’s personal recommendation is to handle errors properly and not rely on the unreliable set -e.

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